A new CNN poll released on Thursday, July 30th, 2026, shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8 points with the midterm elections just over three months away. The survey found that 47 percent of respondents would vote for a Democratic candidate if congressional elections were held immediately, compared to 39 percent for a Republican candidate. Eleven percent of respondents said they would not vote for either party.

The poll reflects challenging political conditions for President Trump and the GOP, including public disapproval of the ongoing war against Iran, economic concerns, and declining presidential approval ratings. According to a Decision Desk HQ polling average on the same day, Trump's approval rating stood at 40.6 percent, with a disapproval rating of 57.5 percent.

In related developments, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics upgraded its forecast for Georgia’s Senate race from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic” in favor of Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff. Ossoff has raised over $20 million in the second quarter of 2026 and holds $42 million on hand, significantly outpacing his Republican opponent Mike Collins, who raised just over $2 million in the same period.

Additionally, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted five House races to toss-up status after previously leaning Republican. These races include those involving Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), Don Davis (D-N.C.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.). The report noted that Democrats do not have as strong a lead as in the 2018 midterms but maintain an average 5-6 point advantage in the generic House ballot.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball cautioned that poor Democratic candidates could cost the party seats, while Republican candidates might benefit from increased campaign coordination and potential funding from Trump’s MAGA Inc.

Sources