The Trump administration has claimed that oil exports from the Arabian Gulf region have surpassed pre-conflict levels despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on X that "on Sunday alone, over 20 million barrels left the Arabian gulf region, which is above the pre-conflict average." Wright also cited a current average of 15 million barrels per day, suggesting the war with Iran would not increase costs for American consumers and might even improve the situation.

Wright credited the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and Gulf allies for a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day leaving the Strait of Hormuz. He added that an additional 5 to 7 million barrels per day are leaving the region via other routes.

However, market research firm Commodity Context tracked only 7 million barrels per day passing through the strait by sea over the past week, and about 4 million barrels per day through bypass pipelines—both figures lower than Wright's claims. Critics argue there is an incentive for the administration to use the most generous definitions of exports. One industry voice noted, "The fundamental problem is that more vessels are leaving the Strait than are going back in. Washington isn't restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz, it's slowly emptying the Strait and calling that progress."

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy continues to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, having released 6.1 million barrels in the first week of August alone, on pace to exceed July's total of 17.4 million barrels.

Despite these developments, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange surged to nearly $90 per barrel on Tuesday night, up from around $70 before the war and during a summer ceasefire. Just after the April ceasefire, there was a $38 per barrel gap between Brent futures contracts and the physical price of crude, though this gap has since narrowed.

President Donald Trump expressed that he was "pleasantly surprised" oil prices have not yet reached $200 per barrel.

Industry observers also highlight that major oil companies have not reduced pump prices in line with the lower oil costs, suggesting they are "making too much money based on a shortage."

Sources