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Food Prices Rise in July Amid Heatwaves, Energy Costs, and Geopolitical Tensions

UN data shows staple food prices increased by 1% year-on-year in July, driven by climate impacts and ongoing conflicts disrupting key markets.

Aug 10, 2026, 8:49 AM UN News

El Niñoperson IPCorganization FAOorganization Agriculture Organizationperson UN Foodtopic United Statesgeography Black Seageography El Niño-relatedperson European Unionperson FAO Food Price Indextopic Geopolitical Tensionsperson Integrated Food Security Phase Classificationtopic

The arrival of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean triggers a cascade of changes in tropical rainfall and wind patterns that echo around the globe. For the United States, the most significant impact is a shift in the path of the mid-latitude jet streams. These swift, high-level winds play a major role in separating warm and cool air masses and steering storms from the Pacific across the U.S. This map illustrates the typical impacts of El Niño on U.S. winter weather. During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream is more reliable across the southern tier of the United States. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer than average, and the southern tier of U.S. states—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be wetter than average. Farther north, the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Valleys may be drier than usual. One or more of these climate patterns have occurred during many El Niño events in the past. That doesn’t mean that all of these impacts happen during every episode. Every event is somewhat different. In other words, the influence of El Niño on U.S. winter climate is a matter of probability, not certainty. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that swings back and forth every 3-7 years on average. El Niño and La Niña alternately warm and cool large areas of the tropical Pacific—the world’s largest ocean—which significantly influences where and how much it rains there. Like a boulder dropped into a stream, this shift in the location of tropical rainfall disrupts the atmospheric circulation patterns that connect the tropics with the middle latitudes, which in turn modifies the mid-latitude jet streams. By modifying the jet streams, El Niño and La Niña can affect temperature and precipitation across the United States and other parts of the world. The influence on the U.S. is strongest during the winter (December-February), but it may linger into early spring. · Photo by NOAAClimategov · Public domain · Source: wikimedia

The cost of essential foods edged up by one per cent in July 2026 compared to the previous year, as searing heatwaves and geopolitical uncertainties affected energy prices globally, according to new data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO Food Price Index highlighted significant price surges in commodities such as sugar, which rose 5.6 per cent due to concerns over persistent hot and dry weather in the European Union and El Niño-related conditions in major Asian producing countries. Global wheat prices increased 5.8 per cent amid continued disruptions to Black Sea exports caused by the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, alongside the impact of recent heatwaves on crop yields in several countries.

World maize prices also rose 3.6 per cent, influenced by hot and dry weather in parts of the United States and spillover effects from firmer energy markets amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) noted that despite a good harvest in the 2025/26 farming season following severe El Niño impacts in 2024/25, the situation is expected to worsen during the October 2026 to March 2027 lean season, potentially pushing 2.6 million people into crisis or level 3 hunger.

IPC experts emphasized, “High food prices, inflation, and below‑average staple production are driving acute food insecurity, while forecasts of strong El Niño during the 2026/27 rainy season underscore the need for close monitoring.”

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