US President Donald Trump has hailed a new Gaza peace plan as a "historic breakthrough." Announced last week, the plan is intended to end ongoing fighting and alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. However, it has so far resulted in a standoff between the main parties involved.

The Gaza-based group Hamas, which launched an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,000 people and triggering nearly three years of Israeli military operations, has agreed to disarm this month after years of armed resistance. The Israeli military's campaign has resulted in over 73,000 deaths in Gaza, leading a UN independent commission of inquiry to classify its actions as genocide.

Experts note some differences between this new peace deal and previous efforts that could be positive. Statements from Trump suggest he may be more willing to pressure Israel to accept the deal. Muhammad Shehada, a visiting fellow at the European Council of Foreign Affairs originally from Gaza, emphasizes the significance of Hamas agreeing to disarm.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a critical election in less than 90 days. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains that although there may be flexibility on other issues, Netanyahu cannot appear lenient on Hamas. Israel will hold elections in October, and any concessions on Gaza could provoke public outcry and reduce coalition options from the far right.

Following a Monday meeting between Netanyahu and the US-led Board of Peace, it was announced that Hamas' disarming and an Israeli withdrawal would no longer occur in phases as outlined in the new 15-point plan. There is concern that if Hamas reneges on disarmament, Israel would have a pretext to resume military operations, potentially collapsing the peace deal and leaving Hamas blamed by Palestinians.

Critics argue the publicly available version of the plan does not reflect Israel's positions and suggest the deal aims to expose Israel as obstructing progress under Netanyahu's government. Despite the challenges, the US appears poised to exert pressure on Israel to accept the peace plan.

Sources