A government report released on Thursday, July 30th, 2026, is set to reveal how the United States economy performed during the early months of the Iran war amid rising inflation. The report will provide gross domestic product (GDP) data for the three months ending in June, a period marked by a historic global oil shock.

According to economists, GDP is expected to have grown at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the second quarter, a slight slowdown from 2.1% growth in the previous quarter but still stronger than the 0.5% annualized growth recorded in the final quarter of 2025. A significant driver of economic growth in the first half of 2025 was a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) spending, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of GDP growth, surpassing the contribution from hundreds of millions of U.S. consumers, JPMorgan Asset Management reported.

The national average price for a gallon of gasoline peaked at $4.56 in May, according to AAA data, before easing somewhat following a preliminary peace agreement last month. Annual inflation has climbed to 3.5%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target by more than a percentage point. Despite elevated costs for businesses and consumers, hiring has remained more resilient than many economists anticipated.

The Federal Reserve was scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon, just hours before the GDP data release. Officials have acknowledged that "persistently high prices are a burden for the American people" and affirmed that "this committee will deliver price stability."

In related developments, a photo obtained from Iran's ISNA news agency dated June 18, 2026, shows vessels anchored in Bandar Abbas along the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Sources