A new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters reveals a competitive 2026 Senate race, with Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow 3-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton (51% to 48%), within the survey’s margin of error.

Despite President Donald Trump's nearly 14-point victory in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, the Senate race appears less settled. Paxton, who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a bruising GOP primary, has yet to fully unify the Republican Party. The primary battle left scars that continue to affect GOP cohesion.

The poll indicates that more voters question Paxton's character than worry about Talarico being too extreme. Additionally, Democrats show higher levels of motivation and interest in voting in the midterms compared to Republicans, by 7 and 6 points respectively. Talarico's lead widens to 6 points among voters who are extremely motivated and interested.

A notable factor is that 24% of non-MAGA Republicans support Talarico. The poll also highlights Hispanic voter sentiment: over half view Talarico (57% favorable), Hinojosa (53%), and the Democratic Party (53%) positively, while majorities hold unfavorable views of Paxton (56%), Governor Abbott (56%), Trump (61%), and the Republican Party (59%).

The survey was conducted from July 23-27, 2026, by Beacon Research (Democratic-leaning) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican-leaning), interviewing 1,006 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.

Although Paxton has President Trump's endorsement, he faces significant challenges in winning over non-MAGA Republicans and independents. Analysts suggest he will need to strongly associate Talarico with the Democratic Party’s far left to consolidate GOP support.

Notable Quotes

  • "Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars," the poll analysis notes.
  • "He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left."

Sources