Human-caused climate change has made the weather conditions fueling wildfires in southwestern France twice as likely, and those driving fires in central Spain 20 times more likely, scientists reported on Thursday, July 30th, 2026. Ongoing wildfires in both countries have led to mass evacuations and extensive land damage.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) group analyzed historical weather data to evaluate how "fire-prone" conditions—hot, dry, and windy weather that complicates fire suppression—have evolved over time. According to the World Meteorological Organization, greenhouse gas emissions primarily from burning coal, oil, and gas have raised the planet's average temperature by about 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In the current climate, fires of this severity are expected approximately once every 20 years in southwestern France and once every six years in central Spain. Spain experienced its wettest January in 25 years earlier this year, followed by the hottest summer on record, according to the country's meteorological agency.

Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather at Imperial College London and co-author of the WWA analysis, stated, “We’ve seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires.” Barnes also noted the early timing of the season and the threat of an impending heatwave as particularly concerning.

An important factor increasing wildfire risk in Europe is the pattern of a wet winter that promotes vegetation growth, followed by a dry spring and summer that desiccates this vegetation, creating abundant flammable fuel. The WWA analysis emphasized that reducing wildfire risk requires not only emergency firefighting but also proactive measures through "risk-sensitive landscape planning and management."

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