Iran’s unexpected ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces stationed in Jordan on Tuesday evening has jeopardized the fragile pause in hostilities between the two nations. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) carried out the missile strikes, escalating tensions in the region.

Hours later, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia launched coordinated strikes targeting Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, further heightening the risk of a return to full-scale conflict. These developments underscore the challenges in ending the ongoing war, which President Trump initially predicted in March would last four to five weeks but is now entering its sixth month.

Will Todman, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that while neither side appears eager to resume all-out war, Iran remains dissatisfied with the current situation. Todman added, “continuing to put military pressure on the U.S. will force greater compromises in the negotiations,” and some quiet talks are reportedly underway.

Gerber, former commander of the Marine Corps Embassy Security Group Region 2, commented that Tehran has acted both as a brake and an enabler regarding Iranian-backed forces in Iraq. He warned that recent kinetic actions could further inflame the conflict. Gerber expressed concern that Saudi strikes, perceived as aligned with the U.S. and Israel against Shia groups—including Iran, Iraqi Shia Popular Mobilization Forces, and Houthis—could escalate the conflict horizontally and complicate Washington’s strategic calculations.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues to enforce a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, having redirected 20 commercial vessels and disabled or boarded four ships since resuming operations on July 14, according to Centcom.

Public sentiment in the United States has shifted, with a Quinnipiac University poll revealing that 55 percent of Americans now believe U.S. military action against Iran will last a year or longer, a significant increase from 32 percent in April.

The U.S. currently possesses between 234 and 278 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors, marking a 38 percent reduction from the 452 interceptors available before the war.

These recent events highlight the precarious nature of the conflict and the complexities facing diplomatic and military efforts to resolve it.

Sources