Pakistan-administered Kashmir, officially known as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), has experienced an unofficial state of emergency this summer, with nearly 40 people killed in clashes between protesters and security forces since early June. The unrest has included sit-ins and road blockades across the region.

A key focus of the upcoming election is the status and representation of 12 refugee constituencies. These seats trace their origins to electoral arrangements introduced in 1960, reinforced by laws in 1964 and 1970, and formalized in AJK’s 1974 Interim Constitution, with reaffirmation in the 2018 13th Amendment. Chaudhry Muhammad Ibrahim Zia, former chief justice of the AJK Supreme Court, noted that the basis for these seats dates back even further to the AJK government’s founding declaration on October 24, 1947, reflecting “the collective will of the people of the State of Jammu and Kashmir.”

The Jammu and Kashmir All Parties Refugee Conference (JAAC) has pushed for greater recognition and power for these refugee constituencies, which represent Kashmiris who fled Jammu during the 1947 violence following the partition of the subcontinent and settled across Pakistan in subsequent decades. However, AJK’s budget of roughly 310 billion rupees (about $1.1 billion) last year far exceeds the development funds allocated to these 12 constituencies, which some argue is insufficient to make them the influential bloc JAAC claims.

At a June 3 conference rejecting JAAC’s proposals, AJK Prime Minister Faisal Mumtaz Rathore stated that any decision on the disputed seats “can only be taken by the elected representatives in the House,” adding that most of JAAC’s other demands had already been met.

The political tensions in AJK are further complicated by the ongoing conflict in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistani officials highlight India’s “longstanding and ongoing systemic violence and human rights abuses” there, where tens of thousands have died in violence involving armed rebels and security forces since 1989. They argue that the situation in Pakistan-administered Kashmir cannot be compared to the severity of the conflict in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The election outcome in AJK will be closely watched as it may influence the region’s political landscape and the representation of displaced Kashmiris amid continuing unrest.

Sources