The United States has imposed new 25 percent tariffs on various Brazilian goods following a yearlong investigation that deemed Brazil’s trade practices "unreasonable." This move, alongside sanctions on local criminal gangs, is impacting Brazilian voter sentiment ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for October 2026.

Incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. His main opponent is Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence. The first round of the general election will take place on October 4, with a potential run-off on October 25 if both candidates advance.

Gimena Sanchez, director for the Andes at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), stated, “His political movement, Bolsonarismo, is afraid that tariffs actually strengthen Lula’s support in the upcoming elections, because Brazilians are very disgusted with the US imposing tariffs.”

The political alignment between the US and Brazil was reportedly simpler in 2018 when then-US President Donald Trump focused on countering China, a major trading partner for Brazil and other regional countries. Trump had previously endorsed Jair Bolsonaro in a 2022 re-election bid, calling him “one of the great people in all of politics.”

Additional developments include a Brazilian court barring Flavio Bolsonaro from visiting his father for 90 days and the sale of Brazilian football legend Pele’s World Cup shirt for $4.9 million.

Sources