Iran's military released footage on Tuesday, July 14th, 2026, showing missiles launched toward U.S. bases in the region. This followed early U.S. strikes on Iran, hours after President Donald Trump vowed to reinstate an American naval blockade of Iranian ports and impose a 20% fee on all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including those of U.S. allies. Trump stated the fee was to reimburse the U.S. "for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the world."

However, within 24 hours, Trump abandoned the toll proposal, suggesting instead that the U.S. would pursue "trade and investment deals" with Gulf allies, implying safe passage through the Strait in return. This abrupt reversal highlights the president's search for unconventional solutions amid a conflict now lasting over four months.

The interim memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran, which had established a temporary ceasefire and negotiation framework, effectively collapsed with Trump's announcement on Truth Social of the blockade's resumption and accompanying U.S. military strikes across Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of the conflict, a critical passage through which a fifth of all traded crude oil and natural gas passed during peacetime. Iran's prior attacks and threats against shipping in the strait had effectively shut the passage, driving up global prices for oil and other commodities.

Experts warn that reopening the strait by force would require a significantly larger U.S. military presence, potentially involving tens of thousands of troops on Iranian soil. Rosemary Kelanid, Director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, described the situation as "a war of attrition, and wars of attrition tend to go on for a long, long period of time," suggesting the conflict may have no clear end.

Trump's reluctance to escalate the war further is influenced by its unpopularity, the risk of rising energy prices, and the danger to U.S. forces and allies. Additionally, he may be hesitant to conclude the conflict without an agreement he can present as superior to the 2015 deal negotiated under Barack Obama's administration.

The renewed hostilities and blockade threat have already impacted global markets, with the price of a barrel of oil jumping nearly 10% on Monday, the largest single-day increase in six years.

Sources